Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, and the lost logic of pitcher contracts

This past Thursday, the Seattle Mariners struck a deal on an extension with their star pitcher, "King" Felix Hernandez. The new deal, which adds another five years to the previous two years left on his prior contract, will keep him in a Seattle uniform through 2019.

The total value of the contract set a new record for the largest contract ever given to a pitcher, at $175,000,000. Additionally, it takes the average salary of Felix Hernandez to a semi-record $27,100,000 per season. This is the highest AAV of any pitcher signed to a full season; however, the contract Roger Clemens signed with the Yankees in 2007, a deal signed mid-way through the season, was worth a pro-rated rate of $28,000,000.

Hernandez is happy, the Mariners are happy, Seattle fans are happy. The other franchises possessing elite young starting pitchers coming up on extensions, however, may not be so pleased. King Felix's new deal sets the bar sky-high for the next crop of outstanding pitchers primed to hit free agency barring extensions: Clayton Kershaw, David Price, and Justin Verlander. Kershaw and Verlander are set to be free agents after 2014, while Price will be a free agent after 2015.

For the Rays, it seems a forgone conclusion that David Price will find a new home after 2015. However, much the same was said in regards to Evan Longoria's tenure in Tampa, and the Rays managed to find the money to retain his services with a nine-figure deal. The door isn't shut completely on Price as a long-term Ray, but it's only open a crack and we are two years away from his time as a free agent.

The same cannot be said in regards to Verlander and the Tigers, and especially not to Kershaw and the Dodgers in light of their hedonistic spending in the past eight-to-twelve months. I am not a betting man, but to bet against Kershaw being the first pitcher to sign a $200,000,000 contract would appear to be easy money. I think it's fairly likely that Verlander gets a large new deal with the Tigers, regardless of whether or not Dave Dombrowski retains his GM job and regardless of whether or not they win the World Series. Mike Ilitch is likely to realize the value (and not just on the field) that a player of Verlander's caliber brings to his ball club, and consequently his revenues/profitability. He may not crack the two hundred million dollar barrier, but he will be very close against it either way (it is plausible he asks for $28,000,000 annually over seven seasons, which would be a $196,000,000 contract).

Perhaps the more pressing question of all is this one: at what point did the general managers and upper management staff of the largest clubs decide to forgo the notion that long-term pitcher contracts are anathema to the team and the game more generally? It was not all that long ago that such long-term deals, even in free agency, were unheard of. Today, it becomes more and more commonplace.

More on this concern, after the jump.

The off-season's biggest winners, 2012-13: #s 5-1

Continuing with my list of the off-season's biggest winners, we have the top five, after the jump.